Financial news

About how the market ignores fundamental data…Foreign exchange market review. 11 September 2007

At international foreign exchange market US dollar is still under pressure and bid in pairs with the main world currencies take place with the "Bull" mood. If Asian session took place more quietly in the limited ranges, then with the beginning of European session market participants activated US dollar sale against main world currencies. The market had actually ignored data on trade balance in the USA, having showed deficit decrease in July by $59,25 bln., from $59,43 bln. a month before. US dollar was also not supported by data on retail sales for the previous week which showed the growth on 2,8%. As a result of sales demand US dollar relating euro lowered by 1,3839. Further growth of the pair was restrained by execution of orders for sale about 1,3840, further sales are at 1,3850 and are connected with option barrier. According to the opinion of market participants, euro/dollar has a potential for break higher than 1,3855 and further movement in direction 1,4000. During the day the pair is traded in the range 1,3777/1,3839, and by this time the movement is noted about 1,3825/30.

Moreover, one should note the market waiting for speech of Ben Bernarke, Head of the USA FRS, in Berlin concerning disproportions of world economy at 18:00 on КТ.

Growth of the pair pound/dollar is till restrained today by sales in the range 2,0325/0330. The ascending mood of the pair is kept despite publications of data about amount of trade balance of Great Britain for July, which deficit increased by 7,065 bln. of pounds. During the day the pair is traded in the range 2,0232/2,0336. The sales are located at 2,0325/0330, further at 2,0395/00. The purchases ale located at 2,0235/30. Now the pair is traded about 2,0300.

An interesting situation is made up with Swiss franc. US dollar is ready to test a multiyear minimum of the beginning of August in the field of 1,1817. But, taking into account that pure speculative position on franc is still short and Bank of Switzerland can increase the rates on this week, franc has where to grow. During the day franc was traded in the range 1,1838/1,1894 and now is noted in the field 1,1860/65.

At Ukrainian interbank foreign exchange market significant changes on Tuesday in comparison with previous business day did not take place. Currency offer is still at high level that permits hryvna to stay towards US dollar in the range 5,00/5,01. Trade session was opened today at the level 5,000/5,012, but soon the range narrowed by 5,0005/5,0040. In this limit the rate was kept till the very closing of bid. Most part of bargains was concluded by market participants in the range 5,0020/5,0040, while 5,0010/5,0050 on previous day.

Ruble today was quoted by banks in the range 0,1953/0,1963, during the session the rate was increased by 0,1958/0,1962, and by closing, been decreased, made up 0,1958/0,1962.

Euro was quoted by banks in the range 6,8945/6,9280, having reached maximum at the end of the session at 6,9115/6,9280 due to strengthening at international market.

NBU did not participate in bid today.

At DEPOT-market today movement of resources cost has differently directed character.

Thus, hryvna «overnight» keeps fluctuating about 0,4/1,0%, but average weighted price on concluded bargains lost 0,1% and by 16:00 КТ constitutes 0,8%. Volume of concluded bargains by the same time constituted just UAH 777 mln., while UAH 1,991 bln. On Monday.

Cost of «weekly» resources, vice-versa, increased a little bit. Rates fluctuations was fixed in 1,75/2,4%, while 1,2/3,2% a day before. Average price increased by 2,0%, from 1,8% annuals on Monday. Volume of bids decreased almost 3,4 times, by UAH 59,4 mln.

Credits cost for the period «from 22 to 31 day» fluctuates today within 4,8/7,0, in comparison with 5,0/7,8% on bids on Monday. Average price decreased by 5,9%, from 6,7% on previous business day.