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2008

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AT DEPO-market there is a clear tendency towards growth of interest rates on inter-bank credits in national currency

International foreign exchange market. During Asian session on Monday the US dollar was growing steadily. With opening of trading areas in Europe , inverse tendency towards decrease began. European currencies began to grow after a statement was made by one of Managing Board members of the ECB that the European Central Bank policy totally complies with set anti-inflation task and does not injure economic growth potential.

Oil prices at the world market began to drop due to the US currency rise in price last week.

This week a lot of important information on the US economy state is going to be published. News release will check the state of the dollar. Statistic data on Eurozone may confirm the fact of economy slowdown in this region, which will in its turn decrease inflation pressure in countries where euro is circulated. According to analysts, this situation is able to cause the decrease of euro/dollar pair to the level of USD 1,47 against euro 1 in the nearest 3 months.

Technical levels on main currency pairs as of 17:48 КТ:

  EUR/USD   GBP/USD  USD/CHF
Opposition 3   1,5697   1,9800   1,0646
Opposition 2   1,5593   1,9694   1,0551
Opposition 1   1,5531   1,9632   1,0495
Support 1   1,5456   1,9570   1,0439
Support 2   1,5395   1,9508   1,0386
Support 3   1,5290   1,9397   1,0297

At the Ukrainian inter-bank foreign exchange currency market , no signs are shown confirming possible rise of the US dollar rate against the hryvnya. On the contrary, today the dollar sagged a little again in comparison with the previous day. Having opened trading at 4,79/7,81, it began slow decreasing movement having reached lowest mark at 4,77/4,79. Towards session closing, the US currency improved its position to the level of UAH 4,780/4,815/$1.

The majority of deals was concluded today by market participants within the range of 4,79/4,80, with 4,7950/4,81 against $1 a day earlier. The NBU still remains as the observer at the market and takes no part in trading.

Circumstances at inter-bank credits market shows that this week the dollar is likely to remain within the range of 2-3 kopecks from the mark of 4,80/$1.

At DEPO-market, there is a clear tendency towards growth of interest rates on inter-bank credits in national currency which is caused greatly by balances decrease at correspondent accounts of commercial banks with the NBU.

Thus, credits “overnight” in UAH rose in price towards the end of the day up to 9,0/12,0% with 6,0/8,0% at the opening and 6,0/7,5% at trade closing on the previous business day. That is, average weighted price on concluded transactions by 17:00 KT amounted to 7,7%which exceeds by 0,7 % previous day level. The volume of transactions amounted to UAH 3,49 billion, with 4,3 billion on Thursday.

Rates on credits for a period “from 2 to 7 days” are today within the range of 10,0/20,0%, with 8/12% a day earlier. Average weighted price on concluded transactions rose to 12,0%, from 9,6% a day earlier. Nevertheless, the volumes of concluded transactions increased to 254 million from 92 million.

Rates on credits for a period “from 22 to 31 days” are today at 14,0/20,0%, against 17,0/18,5% on May, 8.

Dollar credits “overnight” are quoted today by the banks within the range of 2,5/5,5%, euro “overnight” — 3,5/5,5% p.a.

Comments by S.N.KRAMAROVA, Head of the Treasury, PRAVEX-BANK

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