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2008

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At the International foreign exchange market USD reached its maximum level for the last month against all main European currencies

International foreign exchange market. Today USD reached its maximum level for the last month against all main European currencies.

In Germany at 9:00 KT consumer prices index was published. Prices increased in May 0,6% in monthly calculation and 3% in annual one. Analysts forecasted the similar increase. Later on it became known about employment market in Euro zone. During the first quarter of the current year this indicator increased 0,3% in quarter calculation and 1,6% in annual calculation. The value of labour in Europe increased 3,3% in annual calculation.

While opening American trade session there was published US consumer prices index. In May it increased 0,6% in comparison with April. Market participants expected 0,5% increase.

Technical analysis of day and hour schedules of main currency pairs movement shows that in medium-term perspective USD will keep its growth.

Technical levels on the main currency pairs at 17:44 КТ:

  EUR/USD GBP/USD  USD/CHF  
 Opposition 3   1,554 1  1,966 5  1,067 5
 Opposition 2  1,543 5  1,956 3  1,058 8
 Opposition 1  1,537 3 1,950 1  1,053 5
 Support 1  1,531 5  1,944 5  1,048 3
 Support 2  1,525 2  1,938 0  1,042 9
 Support 3 1,514 8  1,927 3  1,033 9

At Ukrainian interbank foreign exchange market bids were performed without participation of the NBU that interrupted its activity after interventions performed on Thursday with the rate of 4,82/$1. Today market currency offer prevailed again over demand, and yesterday's interventions were not so significant to "allocate" market where USD kept decreasing today. Having opened at the level 4,72/4,74 per $1, by the end of the session USD decreased by 4,69/4,71 per $1. In spite of such significant decrease of American currency rate, the National Bank did not enter the market as considered it to be balanced.

Majority of bargains was concluded today by market participants within 4,70/4,72, with 4,73/4,74 per $1 a day before.

At present liberalization of grain and sunflower-oil export stimulates increase of currency intakes into the country. And market needs in USD are not so significant, as during autumn and winter periods. That is why there is inconsiderable surplus of offer pushing USD rate down. And only strong currency interventions of the National Bank can return USD rate to the level that will be close to the official rate that is purpose of the NBU.

Next week, as during last several weeks, USD and UAH behaviour at the interbank will depend on actions of the central regulator on behalf of the NBU.

At DEPO-market, before long holidays, UAH rates after insignificant decrease did not change for a while, however lost several per cents again in the evening. 

Today "overnight" in UAH is at the level of 9,0/16,0%, with 10,0/18,0% a day before. Average weighted price on actually concluded bargains decreased by 13,3%, from 14,2% yesterday. Volume of bargains by the end of the session increased by UAH 3,99 b, from 3,87 b in accordance with previous bids.

Today credit rates for the term "from 2 to 7 days" are near yesterday's levels. Trade range on these credits constituted 15,4/17,0%. Average weighted price on actually performed bargains increased by 16,2%, with 16,0% a day before. Volumes of concluded bargains decreased by 180 m, from 223 m on Thursday.

Today credit rates for the term "from 22 to 31 days" are within 15,0/25,0%, with 18,0/19,0% at bids of the previous day.

Comments by S.N. kramarova, Head of Treasury of PRAVEX-BANK.

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News thrue june
2008

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