Financial news

FOREX market overview on Thursday July 24, 2008

At the bid opening in Europe, Euro and Swiss Franc have lowered insignificantly against US dollar but soon European currency began to grow. GBP from the very morning was losing its positions against world currency. At the end "cable" decreased with more than 100 points.

Retail sale in Great Britain decreased to a record level of 3, 9%. These results are the worst from the moment of statistics introduction in Great Britain. In annual calculation this indicator grew with 2, 2%, but still remained as a lowest result from 2006.  

Euro decline is due to business activity decrease in Germany. Experts suppose that business activity could decline because of high oil prices.

American currency began to decline after data presentation on new applications number for unemployment indemnity receipt. Their number reached 406 000, but, market was expecting not more than 376 000.

Technical levels on basic foreign currency pairs by 17: 12 KT:

On Friday, July, 25, following macroeconomic data could have major influence on world currency exchange rates (Kyiv time):

11:30 — Great Britain — GDP change;

15:30 — USA — Orders volume for goods of long term use;

17:00 — USA — Sale volume of dwelling units on primary market.

Today on Ukrainian interbank foreign exchange market the NBU have once more made the declaration about its readiness to operate currency intervention, directed to Euro purchase, by establishing the rate at 7,3195/€1. The NBU representatives explain these interventions as a step to more complicated mechanism of rate formation — on basis of currency basket.  The NBU has communicated about its readiness to buy currency from market actors today but at that time major part of deals was already concluded. That's why the NBU communication didn't influence much bid's course, and correlation of Hryvnia against US dollar today have risen. Bid have started today with 4,585/4, 60, and further tendency towards US dollar growth persists, and with time this tendency only strengthens. Before NBU made its declaration on possible interventions, the US dollar already made 4,605/4,620, and afterwards leaped up to 4,615/4,650 per $1. On previous day bid closed at 4, 59/4, 62 per $1. Major part of transactions was arranged today by market actors with the same range, with no changes from previous day at 4, 60/4, 61 per $1.

Today on depositary market there was remarked rate decrease on local currency interbank credits independently of credit terms while Hryvnia balances increased, which are growing, including due to the NBU interventions.

Today rates "overnight" are placed at large range of 2, 0/6, 0%, and by closing of bid is stated the tendency to cheapen of these resources. Average weighted price as of 17:00 КТ decreased to 3, 4%, from 3, 8% on Wednesday's session results. Volume of transactions by 17:00 КТ amounted to 2, 78 billions, in comparison with 3, 42 billions on previous day's results.  

Crediting rates "from 2 till 7 days" have changed the direction today and began their lowering, being more or less stable at 5, 0/8, 5%, but being at 5, 0/12, 0% day before. Average weighted price on actual arranged deals decreased with 7, 6%, being 9, 0% the day before. Volume of granted credits practically didn't change and amounted to 154 millions, being 141 millions yesterday.

Term crediting rates "from 22 till 31 days" were today at 10, 1/15, 0%, being 11, 0/13, 5 day before. Notwithstanding the fact, the average price on actual transactions decreased to 11, 5%, from 13, 1% Wednesday's bid.

Comment by S.N. Kramarova, PRAVEX-BANK Treasury Director 

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