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2008

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US dollar reinforcement

International foreign exchange market. Tuesday morning began with US dollar reinforcement. It kept increasing up to the publication at 12:00 KT of price index indicators of Eurozone producers (in January the index rose by 0,8 % in monthly calculation and by 4,9 % — in annual), as well as of data concerning Eurozone GDP modification (in IV quarter 2008 it rose by 0,4 %). After news release European currencies increased insignificantly against dollar.

Many representatives of Eurogroup expressed their concern as regards Euro high rate. Jean-Claude Yunker, Eurogroup President, declared at yesterday conference that Euro rate did not correspond to EU countries fundamental showing. Many called on US authorities for their national currency consolidation.

Europe central banks begin already to ponder over their reserves use to make intervention at foreign currency market in order to abate Euro rate.

Current technical levels as regards main currency pairs:

  EUR/USD  GBP/USD USD/CHF  
 Resistance 3   1.5340 2.0100 1.0730 
 Resistance 2  1.5300 2.0060 1.0645
 Resistance 1  1.5240 1.9970 1.0610
 Support 1  1.5145 1.9735 1.0425
 Support 2  1.5075 1.9690 1.0410
 Support 3  1.4965 1.9615  1.0360 

At Ukrainian inter-bank foreign currency market, bids character changed insignificantly today. Being situated within the same range 5,04/5,06, US dollar soon after the beginning of the bids fell to the level of 5,038/5,042 from 5,040/5,055 at bids opening. But hryvnia still could not manage to overcome 5,04/$ level. From this mark, US dollar began to recover its positions by reaching 5,045/5,055 mark by the closure of the bids.

The majority of transactions has been concluded today by market participants within the limits of 5,044/5,048, with 5,050/5,055 for $1 at bids a day earlier.

At DEPO-market rates keep decreasing at moderate level which is caused by stable increase of surplus liquidity.

Overnight rates by the end of the day decreased to 4,0/6,0%, with 6,0/9,0% in the morning and 6,0/12,0% on Monday. Average weighted rate on transactions by 17:00 КТ decreased to 6,5%, from 8,2% a day earlier. Concluded transactions volume constituted 2,91 bn, with 3,07 bn according to bids results on Monday.

Tendency of rates on credits for the period "from 2 to 7 days" is also oriented down. Today their traffic is registered within the range of 8,0/10,0%, with 10,0/15,9% on Monday. Average weighted price on concluded transactions decreased to 9,8%, from 10,5% according to bids results on Monday.  Volume of concluded transactions is decreasing and constitutes today about 130 m against 178 m yesterday.

Rates on credits for the period "from 22 to 31 days" are situated within the range of 10,0/16,0%, with 12,0/13,5% on previous working day.

Interest rates on dollar overnight fluctuate today at 3,5/5,0% level, on credits in Euro for the same period —  3,5/4,5% of annuals.

Comments by C.N. KRAMAROVA, Head of Treasury, JSCB PRAVEX-BANK. 

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News thrue march
2008

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