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2008

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US dollar keeps strengthening at Ukrainian interbank currency market

International foreign exchange market. With the opening of European session, investors in expectation of negative indicators on the US unemployment, began to buy European currencies against the US dollar.

In Germany by 13:00 KT not very positive indicators of production orders volume were published. Analysts expected that orders number would increase by 0,9% but their number decreased by 0,5%. These data after high inflation rates publication in Europe and after retail  sales decrease were forecast by many specialists.

The most expected event of Friday was monthly data on the number of people employed in non agricultural sphere of the US and general level of unemployment. The number of people employed in the US economy in March decreased by 80,000 people, unemployment grew up to 5,1%. In first seconds the US dollar sharply dropped by several tens of points, but soon afterwards investors began to fix profit on European currencies, and the US dollar exchange rate began to recover once more. The US currency kept on decreasing till the end of the day.

Current technical levels on the main currency pairs:

 EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/CHF
Resistance 3   1,591 8
 2,013 5
 1,022 6
Resistance 2
 1,582 5
 2,003 4
 1,013 2
Resistance 1
 1,576 0
 1,997 5
 1,007 5
Support 1
 1,570 1
 1,991 1
 1,000 1
Support 2  1,565 1
 1,986 1
 0,994 9
Support 3  1,557 3
 1,975 5
 0,985 8 

At Ukrainian interbank currency market after more than a week break, the US dollar  shows again its strength against the hryvnia keeping on the same trend which was registered on the previous day. As mentioned previously, resource situation of the banks allows them to restrain from massive sale of the dollar in order to obtain the hryvnia as hryvnia credits have decreased since the beginning of the week more than in twofold. Many dollar sellers set limit exchange for selling rate not lower than 5,00/$1 exchange rate, which gives them certain results. The US currency exchange rate grew today up to the mark 5,000/5,008, from 4,98/4,99 soon after the opening.

The US dollar will remain strong till the market is saturated with the hryvnia resources, and on  the contrary, as soon as banking balances in hryvnia reach their critical levels, the banks will begin to sell the dollar in order to obtain insufficient resources.

The majority of transactions were concluded today by market participants within the range of 4,99/5,00, against 4,982/4,988 per $1 on Thursday.

At DEPO-market descending movement was suspended and bids during the whole day were performed near the levels fixed on the previous day. Rates were supported by decrease of balances on correspondent accounts with NBU which influence was weakened by close days-off.

Rates on "overnight" credits are within 8,0/14,0 at 6,0/15,0% a day before. Average weighted price on concluded bargains was decreased, having constituted 9,9%, that 0,5% of the analogous index of the previous day. Volume of concluded bargains by this time constituted 3,06 b, with UAH 3,85 b a day before.

Credits for the term "from 2 to 7 days" fluctuate today within large range: from 11 to 18,8% p.a. in comparison with 11,5/14,2% on Thursday, and average price increased up to 13,9% from 12,5% a day before. Volumes of concluded bargains changed inconsiderably, having been reduced by 150 m with 188,5 m. on Thursday.

Rates on credits for the term "from 22 to 31 days" changed a lot today, their movement was marked within narrow range — from 12,9/14,0% at 20,0/25% p.a. on previous business day.

Comments of KRAMAROVA S.N., Head of Treasury of PRAVEX-BANK.

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News thrue april
2008

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