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2008

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At DEPO-market interest rates return to the level of the beginning of the month

International foreign exchange market. On Thursday US dollar rate was growing during the whole day. At 17:30 КТ US dollar increased against euro on 180 points, against British pound 90 points and 150 points against Swiss franc.

In February income exceed over expenses of the current account of Euro zone constituted EUR 4,3 b against deficiency in EUR 7,9 b in January. Market practically did not react to this event. But data on business climate in Germany that showed the strongest decrease in September 2001 caused great negative pressure. Business activity index decreased in April by 102,4 points, with forecast in 104,3 points. Today analysts thought over the fact that business sector was given too much confidence, that is why during all last months Euro was kept at high level. However today's data showed that "strong" euro has been already under doubt.

Number of appeals for unemployment benefit in the USA for the week since April 13 to 19 decreased from 375 thousand by 342 thousand. Such data supported positive mood of US dollar.

Technical levels on the main currency pairs at 17:49 КТ:

 

 EUR/USD  
 GBP/USD  USD/CHF
Opposition 3   1,591 2  1,990 9  1,048 7
Opposition 2  1,581 0  1,980 5  1,039 8
Opposition 1  1,574 5  1,974 5  1,035 0
Support 1  1,567 1  1,966 1  1,027 3
Support 2  1,560 9  1,959 9  1,022 1
Support 3  1,550 7  1,950 2  1,013 6

At Ukrainian interbank foreign exchange market in spite of stabilization of the situation at interbank credits market, US dollar rate fell by the level 4,78 — minimum meaning since 04.11.1999. The reason was statements of representatives of NBU about possible change of official US dollar rate against UAH following market tendencies for the first time since 2005. Having been opened at the level 4,86/4,88, American currency quotations quite soon fell by 4,78/4,83, but by the end of the day decrease was partially won back and rate constituted 4,80/4,85 per $1. However representatives of the National Bank of Ukraine say that this situation has temporal character, and such significant UAH strengthening is connected with absence of heavy buyer at the market — natural gas importer — Naftogas company that has no signed contracts by the middle of April and making no payments for fuel.

Majority of bargains was concluded today by market participants within 4,83/4,85, at 4,88/4,89 per $1 at bids on Wednesday.

At DEPO-market there is observed slow but positive return of interest rates by the levels of the beginning of the month after reaching of 40% at the beginning of the week. The reason was the increase of UAH liquidity at banks' correspondent accounts that was caused by long-term refinancing of commercial banks of National Bank amounting to more than 0,5 b with the term of 350 days and about 250 m for the term of 14 days, and also payments activation by government of compensation to exporters on VAT.

During the day "overnight" in national currency fluctuated within 15,0/25,0%, at 20,0/38,0% a day before, besides by the opening of session, rates constituted 15,0/18,0% p.a. Average weighted price on concluded bargains at 17:00 КТ considerably decreased in comparison with previous day and constituted 19,8% at 29,5% on Wednesday. Volume of bargains by this time constituted UAH 2,23 b, at 3,08 b. on a previous day.

Credit rates for the term "from 2 to 7 days" were exposed to decrease as well, their fluctuation today was fixed within large range — between 18,8% and 31,5% p.a., at 30,0/46,0% a day before. By the end of the day average weighted price on concluded bargains constituted 21,9%, at 35,4% a day before. Besides volumes of bids decreased by 30 m with 194 m on a previous day.

Credit rates for the term "from 22 to 31 days" on actually concluded bargains are today within 24,8/30,3%, at 23,6/35,0% on a previous day.

Comments of KRAMAROVA S.N. Head of Treasury of PRAVEX-BANK.

 

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News thrue april
2008

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