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2008

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US dollar increase at Ukrainian inter-bank foreign exchange market

International foreign exchange market. Today important macroeconomic indicators on economics of European countries and the USA were published. European currencies waiting for release of data on Gross Domestic Product of Euro Zone and inflation level in this region increased against American dollar. However after news release, US dollar started to return lost positions since morning. GDP of Euro Zone in the first quarter of 2008 increased on 0,7% as regards of the previous quarter and on 2,2% as regards analogous period of 2007. Analysts expected GDP growth on 0,5% and on 1,9% correspondingly. Index indicators of consumer prices coincided with analysts' expectations — on 0,3% in monthly calculation and 3,3% in annual one. Head of European Central Bank gave comments that GDP growth of Euro Zone will slow down during the second quarter.

Net flight of capital from the USA constituted in March, 2008 $48,2 b, volume of industrial production decreased in April on 0,7% against March. Against background of such data the US dollar kept growing.

Technical levels on main pairs at 17:41 КТ:

 EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
Opposition 31.568 2
1.964 8 1.072 4
Opposition 21.557 8
1.954 2
1.064 2
Opposition 11.541 5
1.948 0
1.058 5
Support 11.544 2
1.941 9
1.053 2 
Support 21.538 0
1.935 7
1.047 2
Support 31.527 6
1.924 9
1.038 1

At Ukrainian inter-bank foreign exchange market US dollar finally went to "green zone" and for the first time since the beginning of the week showed positive dynamics, having finished bids with increase. American currency strengthening is connected with some stabilization of business at inter-bank credits market that keeps banks from unrestrained currency sale and give them some time to choose.

Today opening of session is fixed at the level 4,770/4,785, and after some trade at the indicated range US dollar started to grow against UAH, having grown by the end of the session to the level 4,785/4,800 per $1. During session American currency increased for a short while up to 4,795/4,810. 

Majority of bargains was concluded today by market participants within 4,775/4,79, with 4,78/4,79 a day before.

At DEPO-market , rates on inter-bank credits in UAH still keep high positions in the morning and have tendency to decrease towards session closure which is affected by liquidity inflow by the National Bank through commercial banks refinancing for "overnight" term.

"Overnight" credits in UAH fluctuated today within the limits of 12/20%, and decreased towards the evening to 12,0/15,0%, with 15,0/20,0% in the morning and 10,0/20,0% on Wednesday. Weighted average price on concluded transactions by 17:00 KT decreased in comparison with yesterday to the level of 16,0%, having lost 1,1%. The volume of transactions rose to 3,67 billion from 3,75 billion yesterday.

Rates on credits for a period "from 2 to 7 days"  increased to 18,0/21,0%, from 13,0/20,0% on Wednesday, and weighted average price on actually concluded transactions increased to 19,0% from 18,1% yesterday. The volumes of concluded transactions decreased once again and amounted to 51,5 million with 127 million on the previous day.

Rates on credits for a period "from 22 to 31 days" are today at the level of 19,3/25,0%, with 15,0/19,6% on yesterday bids.

Comments by S.N. KRAMAROVA, Head of the Treasury, PRAVEX-BANK

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News thrue may
2008

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