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2008

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At the international foreign exchange market USD entered the phase of correction

International foreign exchange market. USD growth for two days entered the phase of correction. Majority of investors started to fix profit according to long USD positions that caused decrease of "American" in the basket of the main world currencies.

Number of appeals for unemployment benefit in Great Britain increased in May 2008, by 9,000, with forecast of 8,000.

As western economists think that the expectations of interest rates increase must support USD in medium term perspective. However at present this growth is not very confident due to "weakness" of American economy that starts "growing warm". Situation at American market starts improving as well. But oil prices get new heights. American economy still depends on oil products prices, moreover for the last week its supplies in the USA decreased 4,6 barrels — by 302,2 m.

Technical levels on the main currency pairs at 17:45 КТ:

  EUR/USD GBP/USD  USD/CHF  
 Opposition 3   1,574 0  1,984 6  1,052 1
 Opposition 2  1,563 6  1,973 8  1,042 7
 Opposition 1  1,557 4 1,967 6  1,036 8
 Support 1  1,551 5  1,961 7  1,031 2
 Support 2 1,544 9  1,955 5  1,035 6
 Support 3  1,534 3  1,955 2  1,026 0

At the Ukrainian interbank foreign exchange market USD decreased by days-long minimum levels in spite of currency interventions performed by the National Bank at bids on Tuesday. The reason is — great offer, rumours as regards the matter that yesterday the NBU did not buy all currency offered for sale by banks, and lack of indicators showing interventions renewal today.

At the market, the US dollar is today within the range of 4.70/4.75, but soon after trading session opening the rate was established within the range of 4.725/4.740 and moved gradually towards the mark of 4.70 having stopped finally at 4.70/4.715 level. By end of trading, the exchange rate amounted to 4.70/4.73. The majority of deals was concluded today  by market participants within the same range as yesterday — 4.725/4.74 per $1. The National Bank did not enter the market today as considered it to be well balanced, nevertheless the US dollar is still at the level which was supported previously by the NBU. Further movement of the US dollar will depend on regulator activity but under current conditions the dollar may indicate further decrease.

At DEPO-market, this day is marked by situation improvement as for liquidity and rates decrease on UAH resources, as yesterday's interventions by the NBU contributed to commercial banks' UAH balances increase.

Overnight in UAH started today from 15.0/20.0% and by end of the day decreased to 10.0/14.0%, with 12.0/23.0% a day earlier.  At this weighted average price on actually concluded transactions dropped to 16.2% from 16.7% a day earlier. The volume of transactions by 17:00 KT totaled UAH 2.74 billion, with 3.62 billion according to Tuesday's trading results.

On the contrary, rates on credits for a period "from 2 to 7 days"  increased today. Their move is marked within the range of 16.0/25.0%, with 14.0/24.0% a day earlier. Weighted average price on actually concluded transactions at this grew to 19.2% from 18% a day earlier. The volumes of concluded transactions decreased insignificantly and totaled 190 million with 229 million according to Tuesday's results.

Actual rates on credits for a period "from 22 to 31 days" are today within the range of 18.0/20.0%, with 17.0/23.0% at previous day's trading session.

Comments by S.N.KRAMAROVA, Head of the Treasury of PRAVEX-BANK

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News thrue june
2008

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